Every NFL game, priced on Kalshi, Polymarket and DraftKings, de‑vigged and net of fees, in your inbox by 9:00 AM ET, with a verdict on which gaps are real and which are noise.
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Everything sits inside model error. Shin and power de-vig alone disagree by up to ~0.6 pp on longshots, so anything under +1 pp is noise.
Pulled Mon Oct 12 · 12:27 PM ET / 19:27 KyivMids from public order booksOpen full board
We pull Kalshi and Polymarket order books and the DraftKings moneyline for every NFL game on the slate.
DraftKings' vig is removed with a Shin model, not the naive even split that inflates longshots. That gives the fair line.
Each gap is netted against taker fees and the bid/ask spread. If it doesn't survive, the sheet says so, plainly.
The lazy method spreads the book's margin evenly and overstates underdogs. We use Shin, with a power de-vig as a cross-check, and show where they disagree.
A gap you can't capture isn't an edge. Every number on the verdict line is net of the venue's taker fee and the spread.
Fees, spreads and settlement rules differ by venue and change over time. A price gap is not an arbitrage: overtime, ties and postponement rules can settle the same game differently. Check each venue's current rules before acting on anything.
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No. Venue Delta is information only and for adults 18+. We publish prices, a fair-line estimate and whether a difference survives fees. We don't tell anyone to place a trade or a bet, and most days the honest answer is "no trade".
Percentage points of implied win probability. If Kalshi prices Seattle at 59.9% and DraftKings' fair line says 57.5%, the gap is 2.4 pp.
Sportsbook odds include a margin (the "vig"), so the two sides add up to more than 100%. De-vigging removes it to get a fair probability. The common shortcut splits the margin evenly, which overstates underdogs. The Shin model allocates it the way books actually shade prices, so the fair line is closer to reality. We cross-check with a power de-vig.
Almost never. After taker fees and the spread, most gaps disappear. And venues can settle the same game differently (overtime, ties, postponements). A gap is not an arb, and we flag settlement differences when they matter.
That depends on your location. Kalshi and DraftKings serve the US (DraftKings only in states where it's licensed), and Polymarket's international exchange is not available to US persons. Check the rules that apply to you. We don't help anyone get around them.
By 9:00 AM ET (16:00 Kyiv) on NFL game-day mornings, about three times a week in season. Pro adds a daily board and real-time alerts.
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An independent, one-person data project based in Kyiv, Ukraine. No sportsbook, exchange or affiliate network pays us or shapes what we publish.
One email. Three venues. One honest verdict.